2025 NFL Week 2 Model Backtest: Pick vs Actual
Quick answer: Using only 2024 regular-season
results (no 2025 look-ahead), this model went 10/16 (62.5%) on 2025 Week 2
decided games. Mean Brier 0.1879. Full 2025 regular season:
171/271 (63.1%). These are graded historical projections, not live odds.
This is a backtest recap, not a 2026 preview. Ratings were
fit on completed 2024 REG games only, then frozen. Every row below has a
real final score from nflverse. Ties are excluded from the hit rate.
Highest-confidence hit: Baltimore Ravens (89.4%) in Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens. Costliest miss: picked Minnesota Vikings at 71.6% and lost Atlanta Falcons 22–Minnesota Vikings 6.
Week 2 scorecard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Games | 16 |
| Decided (no ties) | 16 |
| Correct picks | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Mean Brier (home WP vs outcome) | 0.1879 |
| Full 2025 REG accuracy (same frozen model) | 171/271 (63.1%) |
Every Week 2 game: pick vs actual
| Date | Away (score) | Home (score) | Home WP | Pick | Actual | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-11 | Washington Commanders 18 | Green Bay Packers 27 | 56.1% | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Carolina Panthers 22 | Arizona Cardinals 27 | 72.9% | Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Cleveland Browns 17 | Baltimore Ravens 41 | 89.4% | Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars 27 | Cincinnati Bengals 31 | 70.7% | Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | New York Giants 37 | Dallas Cowboys 40 | 72.1% | Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Chicago Bears 21 | Detroit Lions 52 | 80.4% | Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Denver Broncos 28 | Indianapolis Colts 29 | 43.1% | Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Philadelphia Eagles 20 | Kansas City Chiefs 17 | 53.8% | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | New England Patriots 33 | Miami Dolphins 27 | 63.1% | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Atlanta Falcons 22 | Minnesota Vikings 6 | 71.6% | Minnesota Vikings | Atlanta Falcons | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | San Francisco 49ers 26 | New Orleans Saints 21 | 42.6% | San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Buffalo Bills 30 | New York Jets 10 | 21.7% | Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Seattle Seahawks 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers 17 | 59.3% | Pittsburgh Steelers | Seattle Seahawks | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-14 | Los Angeles Rams 33 | Tennessee Titans 19 | 24.3% | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 | Houston Texans 19 | 53.7% | Houston Texans | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-15 | Los Angeles Chargers 20 | Las Vegas Raiders 9 | 27.5% | Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers | HIT | ensemble |
Misses this week
Sorted by pick confidence. A toss-up miss is cheaper on Brier than a
heavy favorite that lost.
| Game | Pick | Pick WP | Actual | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons 22 at Minnesota Vikings 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 71.6% | Atlanta Falcons | 16 |
| New England Patriots 33 at Miami Dolphins 27 | Miami Dolphins | 63.1% | New England Patriots | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks 31 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 59.3% | Seattle Seahawks | 14 |
| Denver Broncos 28 at Indianapolis Colts 29 | Denver Broncos | 56.9% | Indianapolis Colts | 1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles 20 at Kansas City Chiefs 17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 53.8% | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Houston Texans 19 | Houston Texans | 53.7% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 |
How to read HIT / MISS
Pick is the side with win probability ≥ 50%. A 51–49 toss-up that loses
is a MISS the same as an 80–20 favorite that loses — the Brier score is
the one that punishes overconfidence. Ensemble means a vig-free 2025
moneyline was blended 60/40 with the 2024 ratings; model means ratings
only. Lines here are the historical nflverse close, not a current book.
The frozen 2024 prior went 171/271 (63.1%) across the whole 2025 regular season
(271 decided games, one tie). Week 2 is one slice of that grade.
We start here because early weeks are the honest test of a prior-season
rating: no in-season update, no injury news, no “we always knew.”
Related:
2026 game predictions
(same formula, 2025 ratings) and the
NFL Stats Hub.
Weeks 1–4 at a glance (same frozen 2024 model)
| Week | Correct | Decided | Hit rate | Mean Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 16 | 75.0% | 0.1879 |
| 2 (this page) | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.1879 |
| 3 | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.1967 |
| 4 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | 0.2042 |
Week 1 was the high-water mark in this opening stretch. Accuracy dipped
in Weeks 2–3, which is what a frozen prior-season rating should do once
the new year starts producing its own information. We did not peek at
those later results to retune anything on this page.
Methodology (no look-ahead)
- Train: every completed 2024 regular-season game. Playoffs excluded.
- Test: 2025 Week 2 completed regular-season games.
- Same rating formula as the live 2026 sheet: logit(win%) + 0.01×(PPG−PPG allowed), plus 2024 empirical home-field.
- Fail-closed: if 2024 is incomplete or a 2025 game has no score, this page is not built from mocks.
FAQ
Did this model exist in September 2025?
No. This is a retrospective run of the same formula we use for 2026,
frozen on 2024 data. It is an honest grade, not a claim we published
these picks live last year.
Why start with Weeks 1–4?
Early weeks are the hardest test of a prior-season rating. Later weeks
would look better if we updated ratings mid-season — we did not.
Is this betting advice?
No. Historical model grade for nflfacts.com stats pages.
What does Brier 0.19 actually mean?
Brier is the squared error of the home win probability versus the 0/1
outcome. Coin-flip guesses land near 0.25. A 0.19 week is better than
guessing and worse than a sharp closer. We publish it so a 12/16 week
cannot hide four confident misses.
If you only remember one number from this page, use the hit rate for
the story and the Brier for the honesty check. Both are computed from
the same frozen 2024 ratings. Neither uses 2025 results as an input.
Sources
Backtest rebuilt 2026-09-04 UTC. Train 2024 REG, test 2025 Week 2.
Not a live box score.