Quick answer: This model projects all
272 2026 NFL regular-season games from 2025 completed results
(272 games, home teams won 53.9%).
Seattle Seahawks lead projected wins at 12.9.
112 games also blend in nflverse moneyline implied probabilities.
These are statistical projections, not live odds and not betting advice. Week 1’s strongest lean is Los Angeles Chargers (86.3% win probability).
Kickoff week starts 2026-09-09.
No 2026 games have been played yet, so every number below is a preseason projection rebuilt 2026-09-04 UTC from the public
nflverse schedule dump.
Projected 2026 rankings
Expected wins = sum of this team’s win probability in each of its
17 regular-season games. Tie-break is the 2025 rating, not a coin flip.
Bar chart of projected 2026 NFL wins for the top 12 teams. Original NFL Facts data visualization.
Rank
Team
Division
Exp. wins
2025 W-L
1
Seattle Seahawks
NFC West
12.89
14-3
2
New England Patriots
AFC East
12.28
14-3
3
Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South
12.19
13-4
4
Denver Broncos
AFC West
12.12
14-3
5
Los Angeles Rams
NFC West
11.56
12-5
6
San Francisco 49ers
NFC West
11.32
12-5
7
Houston Texans
AFC South
11.29
12-5
8
Buffalo Bills
AFC East
11.02
12-5
9
Philadelphia Eagles
NFC East
10.81
11-6
10
Detroit Lions
NFC North
9.88
9-8
11
Los Angeles Chargers
AFC West
9.87
11-6
12
Chicago Bears
NFC North
9.63
11-6
13
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North
9.57
10-7
14
Green Bay Packers
NFC North
8.95
9-7
15
Minnesota Vikings
NFC North
8.72
9-8
16
Baltimore Ravens
AFC North
8.68
8-9
17
Indianapolis Colts
AFC South
8.42
8-9
18
Atlanta Falcons
NFC South
8.21
8-9
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South
8.09
8-9
20
Cincinnati Bengals
AFC North
8.03
6-11
21
Dallas Cowboys
NFC East
7.99
7-9
22
Carolina Panthers
NFC South
7.48
8-9
23
New Orleans Saints
NFC South
7.23
6-11
24
Kansas City Chiefs
AFC West
7.08
6-11
25
Cleveland Browns
AFC North
6.52
5-12
26
Washington Commanders
NFC East
5.90
5-12
27
Miami Dolphins
AFC East
5.73
7-10
28
New York Giants
NFC East
5.14
4-13
29
Tennessee Titans
AFC South
4.13
3-14
30
Las Vegas Raiders
AFC West
3.99
3-14
31
New York Jets
AFC East
3.80
3-14
32
Arizona Cardinals
NFC West
3.50
3-14
Week 1 game predictions
Date
Away
Home
Home WP
Away WP
Pick
Source
2026-09-09
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks
59.0%
41.0%
Seattle Seahawks
ensemble
2026-09-10
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
59.3%
40.7%
Los Angeles Rams
ensemble
2026-09-13
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
39.6%
60.4%
Chicago Bears
ensemble
2026-09-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
55.1%
44.9%
Cincinnati Bengals
ensemble
2026-09-13
New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions
72.3%
27.7%
Detroit Lions
ensemble
2026-09-13
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans
50.5%
49.5%
Houston Texans
ensemble
2026-09-13
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
45.1%
54.9%
Baltimore Ravens
ensemble
2026-09-13
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
82.5%
17.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars
ensemble
2026-09-13
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
63.7%
36.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers
ensemble
2026-09-13
New York Jets
Tennessee Titans
54.2%
45.8%
Tennessee Titans
ensemble
2026-09-13
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers
86.3%
13.7%
Los Angeles Chargers
ensemble
2026-09-13
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
48.2%
51.8%
Miami Dolphins
ensemble
2026-09-13
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
51.3%
48.7%
Minnesota Vikings
ensemble
2026-09-13
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles
73.4%
26.6%
Philadelphia Eagles
ensemble
2026-09-13
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
38.1%
61.9%
Dallas Cowboys
ensemble
2026-09-14
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
39.0%
61.0%
Denver Broncos
ensemble
Every remaining 2026 regular-season game
272 games. “Source = ensemble” means a vig-free moneyline was
available in nflverse and was blended 60/40 with the model. “Source = model”
means ratings only — later weeks often have no posted line yet.
Week 1
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-09-09
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
59.0%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-09-10
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
59.3%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-09-13
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
39.6%
Chicago Bears
2026-09-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
55.1%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-09-13
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
72.3%
Detroit Lions
2026-09-13
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
50.5%
Houston Texans
2026-09-13
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
45.1%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-09-13
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
82.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-09-13
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
86.3%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-09-13
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
48.2%
Miami Dolphins
2026-09-13
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
51.3%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-09-13
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
38.1%
Dallas Cowboys
2026-09-13
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
73.4%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-09-13
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
63.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-09-13
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
54.2%
Tennessee Titans
2026-09-14
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
39.0%
Denver Broncos
Week 2
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-09-17
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
64.4%
Buffalo Bills
2026-09-20
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
13.2%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-09-20
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
53.6%
Atlanta Falcons
2026-09-20
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
71.4%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-09-20
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
64.1%
Chicago Bears
2026-09-20
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
66.5%
Dallas Cowboys
2026-09-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
59.8%
Denver Broncos
2026-09-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
67.2%
Houston Texans
2026-09-20
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
61.0%
Kansas City Chiefs
2026-09-20
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
81.8%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-09-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
71.7%
New England Patriots
2026-09-20
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
24.8%
Green Bay Packers
2026-09-20
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
82.8%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-09-20
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
71.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2026-09-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
24.8%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-09-21
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
82.1%
Los Angeles Rams
Week 3
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-09-24
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
70.9%
Green Bay Packers
2026-09-27
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
60.3%
Buffalo Bills
2026-09-27
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
42.4%
Carolina Panthers
2026-09-27
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
45.3%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-09-27
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
52.4%
Denver Broncos
2026-09-27
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
81.7%
Detroit Lions
2026-09-27
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
39.9%
Houston Texans
2026-09-27
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
48.8%
New England Patriots
2026-09-27
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
36.4%
Kansas City Chiefs
2026-09-27
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
68.3%
New Orleans Saints
2026-09-27
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
61.8%
New York Giants
2026-09-27
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
58.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-09-27
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
87.7%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-09-27
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
50.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2026-09-27
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
25.9%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-09-28
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
52.4%
Chicago Bears
Week 4
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-10-01
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
36.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-10-04
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
79.8%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-10-04
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
50.7%
Buffalo Bills
2026-10-04
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
42.8%
Detroit Lions
2026-10-04
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
83.1%
Chicago Bears
2026-10-04
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
39.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-10-04
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
64.9%
Houston Texans
2026-10-04
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
30.3%
Kansas City Chiefs
2026-10-04
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
72.9%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-10-04
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
69.5%
New York Giants
2026-10-04
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
46.2%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-10-04
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
67.2%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-10-04
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
48.7%
Denver Broncos
2026-10-04
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
45.7%
Green Bay Packers
2026-10-04
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
43.1%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-10-05
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
49.6%
Atlanta Falcons
Week 5
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-10-08
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
59.0%
Dallas Cowboys
2026-10-11
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
21.0%
Detroit Lions
2026-10-11
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
42.4%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-10-11
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
53.9%
Green Bay Packers
2026-10-11
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
55.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-10-11
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
46.1%
Denver Broncos
2026-10-11
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
41.7%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-10-11
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
84.7%
New England Patriots
2026-10-11
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
42.0%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-10-11
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
47.0%
Cleveland Browns
2026-10-11
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
59.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-10-11
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
67.1%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-10-11
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
25.9%
Houston Texans
2026-10-11
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
56.9%
Washington Commanders
2026-10-12
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
57.9%
Los Angeles Rams
Week 6
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-10-15
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
48.4%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-10-18
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
39.1%
Chicago Bears
2026-10-18
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
32.4%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-10-18
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
62.4%
Green Bay Packers
2026-10-18
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
71.8%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-10-18
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
53.4%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-10-18
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
44.1%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-10-18
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
88.7%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-10-18
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
21.5%
Buffalo Bills
2026-10-18
New York Jets at New England Patriots
85.7%
New England Patriots
2026-10-18
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
49.1%
New Orleans Saints
2026-10-18
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
71.2%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-10-18
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-10-19
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
76.4%
San Francisco 49ers
Week 7
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-10-22
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
43.4%
New England Patriots
2026-10-25
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
4.5%
Denver Broncos
2026-10-25
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
32.1%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-10-25
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
64.1%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-10-25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
49.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2026-10-25
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
51.4%
Detroit Lions
2026-10-25
New York Giants at Houston Texans
77.2%
Houston Texans
2026-10-25
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
7.8%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-10-25
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
57.4%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-10-25
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
36.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-10-25
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
24.9%
Miami Dolphins
2026-10-25
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
91.6%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-10-25
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
36.2%
Cleveland Browns
2026-10-26
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
74.1%
Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-10-29
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
63.8%
Green Bay Packers
2026-11-01
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
76.9%
Buffalo Bills
2026-11-01
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
76.1%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-11-01
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
82.0%
Dallas Cowboys
2026-11-01
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
91.2%
Denver Broncos
2026-11-01
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
54.7%
Detroit Lions
2026-11-01
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
81.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-11-01
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
62.5%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-11-01
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
13.2%
New England Patriots
2026-11-01
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
53.7%
New York Jets
2026-11-01
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
81.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-11-01
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
54.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2026-11-01
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
19.6%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-11-02
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
76.6%
Seattle Seahawks
Week 9
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-11-05
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
23.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-11-08
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
45.6%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-11-08
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
16.8%
Denver Broncos
2026-11-08
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
71.3%
Chicago Bears
2026-11-08
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
58.1%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-11-08
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
77.3%
Kansas City Chiefs
2026-11-08
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
46.0%
Houston Texans
2026-11-08
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
40.0%
Detroit Lions
2026-11-08
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
82.3%
New England Patriots
2026-11-08
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
60.8%
New Orleans Saints
2026-11-08
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
88.1%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-11-08
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
96.9%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-11-08
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
93.8%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-11-08
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
14.8%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-11-09
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
34.0%
Buffalo Bills
Week 10
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-11-12
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
46.8%
Washington Commanders
2026-11-15
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
8.0%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-11-15
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
64.5%
Atlanta Falcons
2026-11-15
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
29.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-11-15
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
15.2%
Houston Texans
2026-11-15
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
26.5%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-11-15
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
36.2%
New England Patriots
2026-11-15
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
57.1%
Green Bay Packers
2026-11-15
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
61.6%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-11-15
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders
4.1%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-11-15
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
41.6%
Carolina Panthers
2026-11-15
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
8.0%
Buffalo Bills
2026-11-15
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
5.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-11-16
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
36.1%
Los Angeles Chargers
Week 11
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-11-19
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
76.5%
Houston Texans
2026-11-22
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
81.8%
Buffalo Bills
2026-11-22
Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers
52.5%
Carolina Panthers
2026-11-22
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
80.7%
Chicago Bears
2026-11-22
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys
82.5%
Dallas Cowboys
2026-11-22
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
96.8%
Denver Broncos
2026-11-22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
61.0%
Detroit Lions
2026-11-22
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs
76.6%
Kansas City Chiefs
2026-11-22
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
92.0%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-11-22
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
9.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-11-22
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
60.6%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-11-22
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
66.6%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-11-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders
46.9%
Cincinnati Bengals
Week 12
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-11-25
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
68.9%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-11-26
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
68.7%
Buffalo Bills
2026-11-26
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
45.1%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-11-26
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
49.5%
Chicago Bears
2026-11-27
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
37.4%
Denver Broncos
2026-11-29
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
37.0%
Washington Commanders
2026-11-29
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
53.8%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-11-29
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
70.5%
Cleveland Browns
2026-11-29
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
76.8%
Houston Texans
2026-11-29
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts
78.3%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-11-29
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
95.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-11-29
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
29.7%
New England Patriots
2026-11-29
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
80.4%
Miami Dolphins
2026-11-29
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
60.5%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-11-29
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
35.8%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-11-30
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
54.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 13
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-12-03
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams
84.8%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-12-06
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
10.9%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-12-06
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
46.3%
Detroit Lions
2026-12-06
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears
38.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-12-06
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
46.8%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-12-06
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
89.6%
Denver Broncos
2026-12-06
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
60.8%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-12-06
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
70.1%
New England Patriots
2026-12-06
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
32.0%
Green Bay Packers
2026-12-06
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
12.2%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-12-06
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
39.6%
Houston Texans
2026-12-06
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
35.4%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-12-06
Washington Commanders at Tennessee Titans
36.2%
Washington Commanders
2026-12-07
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
88.8%
Seattle Seahawks
Week 14
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-12-10
Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots
84.2%
New England Patriots
2026-12-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens
54.7%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-12-13
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
65.6%
Carolina Panthers
2026-12-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
52.2%
Cincinnati Bengals
2026-12-13
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns
34.7%
Atlanta Falcons
2026-12-13
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
87.7%
Detroit Lions
2026-12-13
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers
37.0%
Buffalo Bills
2026-12-13
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
10.7%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-12-13
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
29.5%
Chicago Bears
2026-12-13
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
4.3%
Denver Broncos
2026-12-13
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
70.7%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-12-13
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
95.3%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-12-13
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
52.3%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-12-13
Houston Texans at Washington Commanders
15.2%
Houston Texans
2026-12-14
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
74.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 15
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-12-17
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers
46.6%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-12-19
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
61.7%
Buffalo Bills
2026-12-19
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
29.7%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-12-20
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
54.9%
Arizona Cardinals
2026-12-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
65.7%
Carolina Panthers
2026-12-20
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
69.2%
Green Bay Packers
2026-12-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
45.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-12-20
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
80.1%
Los Angeles Rams
2026-12-20
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
4.3%
Denver Broncos
2026-12-20
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
53.0%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-12-20
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants
46.9%
Cleveland Browns
2026-12-20
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
65.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-12-20
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
66.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2026-12-20
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
19.6%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-12-20
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
34.7%
Atlanta Falcons
2026-12-21
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
11.2%
New England Patriots
Week 16
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-12-24
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles
51.3%
Philadelphia Eagles
2026-12-25
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
56.3%
Chicago Bears
2026-12-25
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
54.8%
Denver Broncos
2026-12-25
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
56.7%
Seattle Seahawks
2026-12-27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
53.6%
Atlanta Falcons
2026-12-27
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
72.8%
Baltimore Ravens
2026-12-27
Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys
20.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-12-27
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
67.3%
Indianapolis Colts
2026-12-27
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
20.7%
San Francisco 49ers
2026-12-27
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders
53.9%
Las Vegas Raiders
2026-12-27
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
29.5%
Los Angeles Chargers
2026-12-27
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings
77.0%
Minnesota Vikings
2026-12-27
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
75.4%
New Orleans Saints
2026-12-27
New England Patriots at New York Jets
4.1%
New England Patriots
2026-12-27
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
66.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-12-28
New York Giants at Detroit Lions
82.1%
Detroit Lions
Week 17
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2026-12-31
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
40.3%
Baltimore Ravens
2027-01-03
Las Vegas Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
54.7%
Arizona Cardinals
2027-01-03
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
65.9%
Atlanta Falcons
2027-01-03
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
16.0%
Seattle Seahawks
2027-01-03
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
65.0%
Chicago Bears
2027-01-03
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
33.3%
Indianapolis Colts
2027-01-03
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
75.2%
Dallas Cowboys
2027-01-03
Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars
91.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2027-01-03
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
79.6%
Los Angeles Chargers
2027-01-03
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
23.3%
Buffalo Bills
2027-01-03
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
55.0%
New England Patriots
2027-01-03
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
16.4%
Minnesota Vikings
2027-01-03
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
60.6%
San Francisco 49ers
2027-01-03
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27.7%
Los Angeles Rams
2027-01-03
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
13.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2027-01-04
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
37.0%
Houston Texans
Week 18
Date
Matchup
Home WP
Model pick
2027-01-10
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
8.5%
San Francisco 49ers
2027-01-10
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
42.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers
2027-01-10
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
94.0%
Buffalo Bills
2027-01-10
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
53.5%
Carolina Panthers
2027-01-10
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
60.8%
Cincinnati Bengals
2027-01-10
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
75.5%
Denver Broncos
2027-01-10
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
56.3%
Green Bay Packers
2027-01-10
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
94.0%
Houston Texans
2027-01-10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
23.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars
2027-01-10
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
77.2%
Kansas City Chiefs
2027-01-10
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
37.2%
Seattle Seahawks
2027-01-10
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
41.5%
Chicago Bears
2027-01-10
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
90.0%
New England Patriots
2027-01-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
41.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2027-01-10
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
15.5%
Philadelphia Eagles
2027-01-10
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
37.4%
Dallas Cowboys
Methodology
Train: every completed 2025 regular-season game (272). Playoff games are excluded from ratings so a Super Bowl run does not double-count.
Team rating: logit of 2025 win percentage plus 0.01 × (PPG − PPG allowed).
Home-field: empirical 2025 home-win rate 53.9% (logit added to the home team). Neutral-site games get zero HFA.
When both moneylines exist: 40% model + 60% vig-free implied home probability.
No mock games. If 2025 REG data is incomplete, this script refuses to run.
FAQ
Is this a betting sheet?
No. It is an informational projection for nflfacts.com stats pages. Closing
lines move; this snapshot does not.
Why do some games say “model” and others “ensemble”?
nflverse only has moneylines on 112 of 272 2026 games right
now, mostly early weeks. Missing lines fall back to the 2025 ratings model
instead of inventing a number.
Will these rankings update once Week 1 is played?
Yes — rerun the script after completed 2026 scores land. Until then the
prior season is the only honest sample.
Why isn’t this a live standings page?
Google already serves NFL.com / ESPN standings. A dated model table is the
part we can uniquely own.
