2025 NFL Week 1 Model Backtest: Pick vs Actual
Quick answer: Using only 2024 regular-season
results (no 2025 look-ahead), this model went 12/16 (75.0%) on 2025 Week 1
decided games. Mean Brier 0.1879. Full 2025 regular season:
171/271 (63.1%). These are graded historical projections, not live odds.
This is a backtest recap, not a 2026 preview. Ratings were
fit on completed 2024 REG games only, then frozen. Every row below has a
real final score from nflverse. Ties are excluded from the hit rate.
Highest-confidence hit: Denver Broncos (83.2%) in Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos. Costliest miss: picked Kansas City Chiefs at 68.5% and lost Kansas City Chiefs 21–Los Angeles Chargers 27.
Week 1 scorecard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Games | 16 |
| Decided (no ties) | 16 |
| Correct picks | 12/16 (75.0%) |
| Mean Brier (home WP vs outcome) | 0.1879 |
| Full 2025 REG accuracy (same frozen model) | 171/271 (63.1%) |
Every Week 1 game: pick vs actual
| Date | Away (score) | Home (score) | Home WP | Pick | Actual | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-04 | Dallas Cowboys 20 | Philadelphia Eagles 24 | 82.6% | Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-05 | Kansas City Chiefs 21 | Los Angeles Chargers 27 | 31.5% | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 | Atlanta Falcons 20 | 45.1% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Baltimore Ravens 40 | Buffalo Bills 41 | 51.7% | Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Cincinnati Bengals 17 | Cleveland Browns 16 | 25.9% | Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Tennessee Titans 12 | Denver Broncos 20 | 83.2% | Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Detroit Lions 13 | Green Bay Packers 27 | 39.6% | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Miami Dolphins 8 | Indianapolis Colts 33 | 51.4% | Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Carolina Panthers 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars 26 | 57.4% | Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Houston Texans 9 | Los Angeles Rams 14 | 57.2% | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Las Vegas Raiders 20 | New England Patriots 13 | 56.3% | New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Arizona Cardinals 20 | New Orleans Saints 13 | 31.5% | Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | Pittsburgh Steelers 34 | New York Jets 32 | 34.6% | Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | San Francisco 49ers 17 | Seattle Seahawks 13 | 57.1% | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-07 | New York Giants 6 | Washington Commanders 21 | 80.5% | Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-08 | Minnesota Vikings 27 | Chicago Bears 24 | 33.1% | Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings | HIT | ensemble |
Misses this week
Sorted by pick confidence. A toss-up miss is cheaper on Brier than a
heavy favorite that lost.
| Game | Pick | Pick WP | Actual | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 27 | Kansas City Chiefs | 68.5% | Los Angeles Chargers | 6 |
| Detroit Lions 13 at Green Bay Packers 27 | Detroit Lions | 60.4% | Green Bay Packers | 14 |
| San Francisco 49ers 17 at Seattle Seahawks 13 | Seattle Seahawks | 57.1% | San Francisco 49ers | 4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders 20 at New England Patriots 13 | New England Patriots | 56.3% | Las Vegas Raiders | 7 |
How to read HIT / MISS
Pick is the side with win probability ≥ 50%. A 51–49 toss-up that loses
is a MISS the same as an 80–20 favorite that loses — the Brier score is
the one that punishes overconfidence. Ensemble means a vig-free 2025
moneyline was blended 60/40 with the 2024 ratings; model means ratings
only. Lines here are the historical nflverse close, not a current book.
The frozen 2024 prior went 171/271 (63.1%) across the whole 2025 regular season
(271 decided games, one tie). Week 1 is one slice of that grade.
We start here because early weeks are the honest test of a prior-season
rating: no in-season update, no injury news, no “we always knew.”
Related:
2026 game predictions
(same formula, 2025 ratings) and the
NFL Stats Hub.
Weeks 1–4 at a glance (same frozen 2024 model)
| Week | Correct | Decided | Hit rate | Mean Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (this page) | 12 | 16 | 75.0% | 0.1879 |
| 2 | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.1879 |
| 3 | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.1967 |
| 4 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | 0.2042 |
Week 1 was the high-water mark in this opening stretch. Accuracy dipped
in Weeks 2–3, which is what a frozen prior-season rating should do once
the new year starts producing its own information. We did not peek at
those later results to retune anything on this page.
Methodology (no look-ahead)
- Train: every completed 2024 regular-season game. Playoffs excluded.
- Test: 2025 Week 1 completed regular-season games.
- Same rating formula as the live 2026 sheet: logit(win%) + 0.01×(PPG−PPG allowed), plus 2024 empirical home-field.
- Fail-closed: if 2024 is incomplete or a 2025 game has no score, this page is not built from mocks.
FAQ
Did this model exist in September 2025?
No. This is a retrospective run of the same formula we use for 2026,
frozen on 2024 data. It is an honest grade, not a claim we published
these picks live last year.
Why start with Weeks 1–4?
Early weeks are the hardest test of a prior-season rating. Later weeks
would look better if we updated ratings mid-season — we did not.
Is this betting advice?
No. Historical model grade for nflfacts.com stats pages.
What does Brier 0.19 actually mean?
Brier is the squared error of the home win probability versus the 0/1
outcome. Coin-flip guesses land near 0.25. A 0.19 week is better than
guessing and worse than a sharp closer. We publish it so a 12/16 week
cannot hide four confident misses.
If you only remember one number from this page, use the hit rate for
the story and the Brier for the honesty check. Both are computed from
the same frozen 2024 ratings. Neither uses 2025 results as an input.
Sources
Backtest rebuilt 2026-09-04 UTC. Train 2024 REG, test 2025 Week 1.
Not a live box score.