2025 NFL Week 4 Model Backtest: Pick vs Actual
Quick answer: Using only 2024 regular-season
results (no 2025 look-ahead), this model went 11/15 (73.3%) on 2025 Week 4
decided games. Mean Brier 0.2042. Full 2025 regular season:
171/271 (63.1%). These are graded historical projections, not live odds.
This is a backtest recap, not a 2026 preview. Ratings were
fit on completed 2024 REG games only, then frozen. Every row below has a
real final score from nflverse. Ties are excluded from the hit rate.
Highest-confidence hit: Buffalo Bills (90.0%) in New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills. Costliest miss: picked Los Angeles Chargers at 78.4% and lost Los Angeles Chargers 18–New York Giants 21.
Week 4 scorecard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Games | 16 |
| Decided (no ties) | 15 |
| Correct picks | 11/15 (73.3%) |
| Mean Brier (home WP vs outcome) | 0.2042 |
| Full 2025 REG accuracy (same frozen model) | 171/271 (63.1%) |
Every Week 4 game: pick vs actual
| Date | Away (score) | Home (score) | Home WP | Pick | Actual | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | Seattle Seahawks 23 | Arizona Cardinals 20 | 44.8% | Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Washington Commanders 27 | Atlanta Falcons 34 | 45.1% | Washington Commanders | Atlanta Falcons | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | New Orleans Saints 19 | Buffalo Bills 31 | 90.0% | Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Green Bay Packers 40 | Dallas Cowboys 40 | 26.3% | Green Bay Packers | TIE | — | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Cleveland Browns 10 | Detroit Lions 34 | 87.9% | Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Tennessee Titans 0 | Houston Texans 26 | 82.6% | Houston Texans | Houston Texans | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Baltimore Ravens 20 | Kansas City Chiefs 37 | 56.5% | Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Indianapolis Colts 20 | Los Angeles Rams 27 | 63.4% | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Chicago Bears 25 | Las Vegas Raiders 24 | 49.9% | Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Carolina Panthers 13 | New England Patriots 42 | 60.4% | New England Patriots | New England Patriots | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Los Angeles Chargers 18 | New York Giants 21 | 21.6% | Los Angeles Chargers | New York Giants | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Minnesota Vikings 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers 24 | 34.8% | Minnesota Vikings | Pittsburgh Steelers | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Jacksonville Jaguars 26 | San Francisco 49ers 21 | 64.1% | San Francisco 49ers | Jacksonville Jaguars | MISS | ensemble |
| 2025-09-28 | Philadelphia Eagles 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 | 32.8% | Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-29 | Cincinnati Bengals 3 | Denver Broncos 28 | 71.6% | Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | HIT | ensemble |
| 2025-09-29 | New York Jets 21 | Miami Dolphins 27 | 62.9% | Miami Dolphins | Miami Dolphins | HIT | ensemble |
Misses this week
Sorted by pick confidence. A toss-up miss is cheaper on Brier than a
heavy favorite that lost.
| Game | Pick | Pick WP | Actual | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers 18 at New York Giants 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | 78.4% | New York Giants | 3 |
| Minnesota Vikings 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 24 | Minnesota Vikings | 65.2% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 26 at San Francisco 49ers 21 | San Francisco 49ers | 64.1% | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 |
| Washington Commanders 27 at Atlanta Falcons 34 | Washington Commanders | 54.9% | Atlanta Falcons | 7 |
How to read HIT / MISS
Pick is the side with win probability ≥ 50%. A 51–49 toss-up that loses
is a MISS the same as an 80–20 favorite that loses — the Brier score is
the one that punishes overconfidence. Ensemble means a vig-free 2025
moneyline was blended 60/40 with the 2024 ratings; model means ratings
only. Lines here are the historical nflverse close, not a current book.
The frozen 2024 prior went 171/271 (63.1%) across the whole 2025 regular season
(271 decided games, one tie). Week 4 is one slice of that grade.
We start here because early weeks are the honest test of a prior-season
rating: no in-season update, no injury news, no “we always knew.”
Related:
2026 game predictions
(same formula, 2025 ratings) and the
NFL Stats Hub.
Weeks 1–4 at a glance (same frozen 2024 model)
| Week | Correct | Decided | Hit rate | Mean Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 16 | 75.0% | 0.1879 |
| 2 | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.1879 |
| 3 | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | 0.1967 |
| 4 (this page) | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | 0.2042 |
Week 1 was the high-water mark in this opening stretch. Accuracy dipped
in Weeks 2–3, which is what a frozen prior-season rating should do once
the new year starts producing its own information. We did not peek at
those later results to retune anything on this page.
Methodology (no look-ahead)
- Train: every completed 2024 regular-season game. Playoffs excluded.
- Test: 2025 Week 4 completed regular-season games.
- Same rating formula as the live 2026 sheet: logit(win%) + 0.01×(PPG−PPG allowed), plus 2024 empirical home-field.
- Fail-closed: if 2024 is incomplete or a 2025 game has no score, this page is not built from mocks.
FAQ
Did this model exist in September 2025?
No. This is a retrospective run of the same formula we use for 2026,
frozen on 2024 data. It is an honest grade, not a claim we published
these picks live last year.
Why start with Weeks 1–4?
Early weeks are the hardest test of a prior-season rating. Later weeks
would look better if we updated ratings mid-season — we did not.
Is this betting advice?
No. Historical model grade for nflfacts.com stats pages.
What does Brier 0.19 actually mean?
Brier is the squared error of the home win probability versus the 0/1
outcome. Coin-flip guesses land near 0.25. A 0.19 week is better than
guessing and worse than a sharp closer. We publish it so a 12/16 week
cannot hide four confident misses.
If you only remember one number from this page, use the hit rate for
the story and the Brier for the honesty check. Both are computed from
the same frozen 2024 ratings. Neither uses 2025 results as an input.
Sources
Backtest rebuilt 2026-09-04 UTC. Train 2024 REG, test 2025 Week 4.
Not a live box score.