Packers vs Bears Match Player Stats
Quick answer: Since 2016 these two clubs
have 20 regular-season meetings (3 wins for Chicago Bears,
17 for Green Bay Packers).
Average margin 9.9 points; 11 of 20 were decided by
8 or fewer. For the 2026-12-25 game at Chicago Bears, the model gives
Chicago Bears 56.3% and Green Bay Packers 43.7%
(source: ensemble). That is a projection, not a box score.
This page is a matchup-stat sheet for
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears — team scoring, home/away splits, and the 2026
model pick — not a live player box score. NFL.com owns the live feed.
We picked this meeting because it is named rivalry (Packers–Bears); model toss-up (home win probability inside 10 points of 50%); prime-date meeting (kickoff week, Thanksgiving, or Christmas); 20 regular-season meetings since 2016.
2026 meeting: model pick
| Date | Week | Away | Home | Home WP | Away WP | Pick | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-25 | 16 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 56.3% | 43.7% | Chicago Bears | ensemble |
Ensemble means a vig-free nflverse moneyline was blended 60/40 with the
2025 ratings model. Model means ratings only. See the
full 272-game sheet.
Head-to-head since 2016 (regular season)
The most recent regular-season meeting was 2025-12-20: Green Bay Packers 16, Chicago Bears 22. Sample is completed regular-season games only — playoffs excluded
so a Super Bowl run does not double-count.
| Metric | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| REG wins (2016–2025) | 3 | 17 |
| Points scored in those games | 359 | 527 |
| PPG in the series | 17.9 | 26.4 |
| Wins when hosting | 2/10 | 9/10 |
| One-score games (margin ≤ 8) | 11 of 20 | |
| Average margin | 9.9 points | |
Every regular-season meeting since 2016
| Season | Week | Date | Away | A | H | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | 2025-12-20 | Green Bay Packers | 16 | 22 | Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | 6 |
| 2025 | W14 | 2025-12-07 | Chicago Bears | 21 | 28 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 7 |
| 2024 | W18 | 2025-01-05 | Chicago Bears | 24 | 22 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 2 |
| 2024 | W11 | 2024-11-17 | Green Bay Packers | 20 | 19 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 1 |
| 2023 | W18 | 2024-01-07 | Chicago Bears | 9 | 17 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 8 |
| 2023 | W1 | 2023-09-10 | Green Bay Packers | 38 | 20 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 18 |
| 2022 | W13 | 2022-12-04 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 19 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 9 |
| 2022 | W2 | 2022-09-18 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 27 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 17 |
| 2021 | W14 | 2021-12-12 | Chicago Bears | 30 | 45 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 15 |
| 2021 | W6 | 2021-10-17 | Green Bay Packers | 24 | 14 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 10 |
| 2020 | W17 | 2021-01-03 | Green Bay Packers | 35 | 16 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 19 |
| 2020 | W12 | 2020-11-29 | Chicago Bears | 25 | 41 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 16 |
| 2019 | W15 | 2019-12-15 | Chicago Bears | 13 | 21 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 8 |
| 2019 | W1 | 2019-09-05 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 3 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 7 |
| 2018 | W15 | 2018-12-16 | Green Bay Packers | 17 | 24 | Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | 7 |
| 2018 | W1 | 2018-09-09 | Chicago Bears | 23 | 24 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 1 |
| 2017 | W10 | 2017-11-12 | Green Bay Packers | 23 | 16 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 7 |
| 2017 | W4 | 2017-09-28 | Chicago Bears | 14 | 35 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 21 |
| 2016 | W15 | 2016-12-18 | Green Bay Packers | 30 | 27 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 3 |
| 2016 | W7 | 2016-10-20 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 26 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 16 |
How the series actually breaks
A 10-season regular-season sample is large enough to say something
useful and small enough not to pretend the 1990s still apply. Of the
20 meetings, 4 were field-goal games (margin of 3 or less) and
7 were decided by two scores or more (14+). That split tells you
whether this pairing is a coin-flip rivalry or a style mismatch.
The last five meetings went 2–3
(Chicago Bears–Green Bay Packers). Hosting still matters: Chicago Bears are
2–8 at home in this sample;
Green Bay Packers are 9–1 at home.
The 2026 game is in Bears’s building, which is why the
model’s home number is not the same as a neutral-site toss-up.
Points are team totals, not player box scores. We are not inventing
passing yards or snap counts for 2026. If a search for
“packers vs bears match player stats” wants last Sunday’s individual line, that is a live
feed. This page is the series, plus one dated probability.
What the 2026 number is — and is not
The win probabilities come from 2025 completed regular-season results
(272 games). They do not use 2026 scores, because none exist yet.
They also do not invent individual player stats. If you came here for
“packers vs bears match player stats” looking for a live passing-yard table, that feed is on
NFL.com; this page is the series history plus one dated model row.
Related: the full
272-game prediction sheet
and the
NFL Stats Hub.
How to read the 2026 probability
A home win probability of 56.3% is not a score prediction.
It is the model’s share of a binary outcome after adding home-field from
the 2025 sample (home teams won 53.9% of regular-season games). If the
number sits near 50, the series history above is doing more work than
the rating gap. If it sits in the 70s, the 2025 season gap is large
enough that even a famous rivalry does not pull it back to a coin flip.
That is also why we will not paste a fake 2026 passing-leader table
here. The honest “player stats” on this URL are team scoring rates in
the completed series, plus one labeled projection for
2026-12-25. Anything else would be made up.
FAQ
Why this game and not a random Week 8 tilt?
It scored high on a rivalry + statistical-significance filter: rivalry:Packers–Bears, toss-up, prime-date, h2h-20, has-line.
Do these wins include playoffs?
No. Regular season only, 2016 onward, so the sample is 10 seasons of
completed games with the current 32-team set.
Will the pick change after Week 1?
The 272-game sheet can be rebuilt once 2026 scores land. Until then the
honest prior is 2025.
Is this a betting card?
No. Informational projection for nflfacts.com stats pages. Lines move;
this snapshot does not.
Sources
Model output and completed-game history, not a live box score.
Rebuilt 2026-09-04 UTC. 20 H2H REG games since 2016.